You probably have that training partner who is not incredibly fast in the group workouts but is always delivering when it comes to race performance - beating the people in races that beat him in training.
When I was in Hawaii for the Ironman World Championships last month I had a pre-race meeting with one of my athletes, Luiz Topan. Luiz went on to place 4th in his competitive M40-44 age group.
Luiz had tracked all the M40-44 competitors across all Ironman Hawaii qualifiers that were fit enough to break 9hrs20. According to him, there were 16 guys in his age group that had a good chance to place Top 5 in Hawaii. I didn't agree. I said that only a third, or five to six guys, could be a threat.
And here's the reason. When it comes to racing a big event - be it your first triathlon, first Ironman or the World Championships - a lot of athletes just overdo it.
It is part of the type-A nature of a triathlete. Most can't hold back when needed which often results in two scenarios:
1) DNS (did not start!)
In most cases a DNS is a result of injuries. Training too hard too close to your big race is a mistake. If you really want to perform on that specific day, you should be training "hard" for months and months before it - even years depending on what your goals are.
Doing a six-week training camp will only create a load that your body is not used to. And those athletes training for Kona tend to get back into training too soon and train too hard since most Kona qualifiers are in the summer. It is extremely difficult for a working age grouper, in many ways, to do two Ironman preparations in such a short time bracket.
Another common reason for a DNS is that athletes put too much pressure on themselves, which kills their confidence and they just quit the race before they have even started. Athletes might compare their training performance to previous weeks, realize that they are going slower which can be a result of deep fatigue instead of a lack of fitness per se or life circumstances that are not 100% optimal and think it is better to just wait for another opportunity.
2) Underperforming on race day
Pacing is the biggest cause of underperformance on race day. For a specific group of athletes - especially those looking for a breakthrough race - it is even acceptable that they might "bonk". If an athlete is willing to risk the relative certainty of an average result for the chance at something they haven't achieved yet, they will need to walk a very fine line. And many times they will cross that line, never recovering and finishing the race much slower than they should have been able to, based on their level of fitness.
The other reason for underperformance on race day is that athletes start the race drained of mental or physical energy. Race-week anxiety will take a lot of energy from your competitors. Most get to the start line fit but very tired, and as a result they can't deliver the performance they would have been capable of - had they controlled their nerves and kept their routine simple and effective.
So for the next time you look at the start list of a race, don't be afraid of so many big names with fast races in their CV: a lot of those athletes won't even make it to the start line while another group will under-perform, guaranteed! Just make sure you control the controllable and stay in the performance group!
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